Tracking Aid to Ukraine
How are countries supporting Ukraine?
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One year has passed since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It has been a year of suffering and hardship for the Ukrainian people, but also a year of Ukrainian resilience as well as solidarity and support from around world. But which countries are putting their money where their mouth is? In its Ukraine Support Tracker, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy presents data on support for Ukraine.
The US leads and the EU follows – that is the conclusion of the IfW’s latest data analysis from 21 February 2023, covering the first 12 months of support for Ukraine. Throughout 2022, the US has led the way with major support pledges for Ukraine, while EU countries have been following with some delay; however, they surpassed US aid in terms of total amount pledged at least temporarily. In December 2022, the US announced an additional aid package with a total amount of about 73.1 billion euros and is, therefore, leading the international support once again. Overall, humanitarian aid remained relatively constant over the course of the year, while the share of financial and military support increased. After the flow of aid commitments came almost to a halt during the summer, it rose again to record levels towards the end of the year.
In addition to providing an overview of support, sorted by type as well as by total amount and share of GDP, the Ukraine Support Tracker’s team also draws comparisons with current measures to counter rising energy costs and with Western spending in past conflicts. For example, the total sum of Germany’s support for Ukraine only amounts to about 5 per cent of the money spent on energy subsidies, more than 250 billion euros, while other EU countries’ energy packages were on average ten times higher than what they committed to Ukraine. The United States, on the other hand, spent more than three times as much per year on the war in Afghanistan after 2001 than it is currently spending on aid to Ukraine (in relation to its GDP).
All details can be found on the Ukraine Support Tracker’s regularly updated website. A short summary of the latest update from 21 February 2023 can be found here.
Recovery and
Modernisation
Principles and policies
for rebuilding Ukraine
What should Ukraine look like after the war and how can the country achieve its goals? In a new report, the Centre for Economic Policy Research offers a comprehensive analysis of the prospects for the reconstruction of Ukraine. In 14 chapters, the experts address various aspects, highlighting the challenges, opportunities, and tools for Ukraine’s recovery. The recommendations are based on the conviction that reconstruction is not about returning Ukraine to its pre-war state, but about a profound modernisation of the country on its path to the European Union.
Read more in the first Paris Report “Rebuilding Ukraine: Principles and Policies”, published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research on 7 December 2022.
On the Path to EU Membership
How far along is Ukraine?
In June 2022, the EU granted Ukraine the status of a membership candidate, a major step on the country’s path towards European integration. According to a survey from January 2023, an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians (87 per cent) support their country’s future membership in the European Union. But Ukraine still has some way to go before reaching this goal. As part of the preconditions for the opening of accession negotiations, the country committed itself to implementing seven reform recommendations by the European Commission in the areas of rule of law, anti-corruption, media, and national minorities. The Ukrainian think tank New Europe Center regularly reviews the status of the reforms, most recently in January. Reports, analyses and assessments of current developments in Ukraine, including its EU accession process, can also be found on the platform “Ukraine verstehen” (in German), a project by the Berlin-based think tank Zentrum Liberale Moderne.
On 3 February 2023, leaders from Ukraine and the EU met in Kyiv for their annual summit – the first since Ukraine became a membership candidate. At the meeting, the EU acknowledged Ukraine’s “considerable efforts” to achieve the agreed goals. The candidate check of the Kyiv-based New Europe Center also confirms the country’s progress in implementing reforms, such as a law on the protection of national minorities and a media law. However, further reforms are still necessary, especially concerning the Constitutional Court. The corruption scandals of late January have also made it clear that corruption remains a major challenge in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the dismissals of high-ranking politicians show that the government is serious in its efforts to combat corruption.
Read more in New Europe Center’s candidate checks from January 2023, November 2022 and August 2022.
An analysis on the state of reforms, published in January 2023 by Zentrum Liberale Moderne, can be found here (in German). Further publications on this topic and others are available on the project website “Ukraine verstehen”, such as the policy paper “Ukraine and the EU at the Time of War: A New Paradigm” (in English) from 31 January and an analysis of Ukraine’s anti-corruption efforts from 1 February (in German).
A Modern Marshall Plan
Designing Ukraine’s Recovery
In June 1947, US Secretary of State George C. Marshall announced the “European Recovery Program” in a speech at Harvard University. 75 years later, the West is once again faced with the task of designing a comprehensive reconstruction programme for a European country. What might a modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine look like? In a study published last year, the German Marshall Fund proposes ways to solve some of the thorniest questions concerning recovery aid to post-war Ukraine: When should reconstruction start? Who should lead the international effort? Who should pay for it? And how can corruption be minimised?
Read more in the study “Designing Ukraine’s Recovery in the Spirit of the Marshall Plan”, published on 7 September 2022. The website of the Washington-based think tank also features other commentaries on Ukraine’s reconstruction, such as “A Modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine. Seven Lessons From History to Deliver Hope”, “Postwar Planning Must Begin: What a Modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine Looks Like”, “‘Transparency Is Key’; Recovering Ukraine’s Energy Sector” and “Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction: Cities Must Be Part of It”.
Public Support for Ukraine
One year later, have opinions changed?
A series of recent surveys show what citizens in Europe and around the world think about Russia’s war on Ukraine.
According to a Eurobarometer poll conducted in autumn 2022, an overwhelming majority of EU citizens continue to back the bloc’s support for Ukraine. Almost three quarters approve of the EU’s support, including one-third who “strongly” approve. The study shows major discrepancies between member countries, however. Support is highest among EU citizens in Nordic countries, the Netherlands, Ireland and Portugal, with more than 90 per cent approving of the EU’s actions. On the other end of the spectrum, less than half of the population of Greece, Slovakia, Cyprus and Bulgaria do so. The latest survey, published on 22 February 2023, provides an update on these numbers, finding continued solidarity with Ukraine among EU citizens.
In a recent survey among US citizens, the Washington-based Pew Research Center finds that opinions on US support for Ukraine are growing increasingly divergent. The share of Americans who say that the US is providing too much support has grown from 7 per cent in March 2022 to about a quarter in January 2023. The shift in public opinion is primarily due to the growing share of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents – up from 9 per cent at the beginning of the war to 40 per cent in January 2023. The think tank also found a growing partisan gap over whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine poses a major threat to US interests or not.
In a study on global public opinion on the war, published on 22 February 2023, the European Council on Foreign Relations finds that Russia’s war on Ukraine has consolidated ‘the West’. Both Europeans and Americans agree they should help Ukraine to win and that Russia is their adversary. In contrast, citizens in China, India and Turkey prefer a quick end to the war even if Ukraine has to concede territory. The multi-country poll conducted in December 2022 and January 2023 also reveals differences between Western and non-Western publics on why the US and Europe are helping Ukraine.
A new survey, published by Ipsos on 20 January 2023, finds that global public opinion about the war in Ukraine has remained remarkably stable. On average, 64 per cent across all 28 countries surveyed still closely follow news about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a drop of only five percentage points compared to the beginning of the war. Across the 14 Western countries included in the poll, an average of 57 per cent favor continuing to support Ukraine until all Russian forces have withdrawn from Ukrainian territory. But support varies greatly from 69 per cent in Sweden to just 37 per cent in Hungary. When it comes to economic sanctions, the survey finds that global opinion is divided between Western countries where a majority support them, except in Hungary and Italy, and non-Western countries.
Enabling an Economic
Transformation
On the critical role of private sector investment
Foreign aid will not be enough to rebuild Ukraine. A new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies analyses the critical role of private sector investment in Ukraine’s economic reconstruction and how the private sector – both within Ukraine and internationally – can help Ukraine win the peace. Its authors aim to provide a framework for the United States, the European Union and other G7 donor countries to help Ukraine attract critical private sector investment. Their recommendations include a multiyear, multibillion-dollar commitment from Ukraine’s partners, a specific timeline for the country’s EU accession of no more than 10-15 years as well as reforms to strengthen governance and accountability in Ukraine.
Read more in the digital feature “Enabling Ukraine’s Economic Transformation”, published on 10 February 2023, and in the detailed report “Enabling an Economic Transformation of Ukraine”, published on 10 January 2023. Further analysis can be found at the CSIS Ukraine Economic Reconstruction Commission’s website, including on the role of gas and renewables in Ukraine’s energy future and the role of the digital sector.
Destroyed Infrastructure
Assessing war damages in Ukraine
Last autumn, Russia escalated its attacks on Ukraine and launched a widespread bombing campaign directed at civilian infrastructure. In its latest estimate from 24 January 2023, the Kyiv School of Economics put the total amount of damage to Ukrainian infrastructure until December 2022 at 138 billion US dollars. The most affected spheres are housing, infrastructure, as well as industry and business assets – with damages estimated at 54, 35.6 and 13 billion US dollars respectively. More than 3,000 educational institutions have been damaged or destroyed, as well as 330 hospitals, 593 pharmacies and more than 1,300 cultural, sports and religious facilities. The KSE Institute’s project “Russia will pay” provides regularly updated assessments of war damages caused by Russia.
Ukrainian Views on Reconstruction
What does the affected population think?
Any reconstruction in Ukraine must take into account the needs of the population. In a new policy paper, the Transatlantic Dialogue Center presents the findings of a representative survey of Ukrainians from November 2022 on the topic of reconstruction and international assistance. The Ukrainian think tank shows how the population perceives the challenges of recovery and gives recommendations on how to improve the effectiveness of reconstruction. Questions addressed in the study include: What do the affected communities see as needed the most? What should be prioritised? What is the right balance between immediate relief and long-term recovery and modernisation? How should foreign countries be involved in reconstruction?
© Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. 2023
Contributors to this issue were:
Team KALUZA + SCHMID Studio, Bogdan Miftakhov, Johannes Sudau, Kristin Wesemann, Chrystyna Rey
Sources
(1) Trebesch, Christoph et al. Ukraine Support Tracker Kiel Institute for the World Economy, updated February 2023.
(2) Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, Ilona Sologoub, Beatrice Weder di Mauro (eds.). Rebuilding Ukraine: Principles and Policies. Centre for Economic Policy Research, December 2022.
(3)
“Candidate Check-3: Where Ukraine is in the implementation of 7 EU recommendations”. New Europe Center, 1 February 2023.
Fakhurdinowa, Marianna. “EU-Beitritt der Ukraine: Wie steht es um die nötigen Reformen”. Zentrum Liberale Moderne, 9. Januar 2023.
Delcour Laure and Kataryna Wolczuk. Ukraine and the EU at the Time of War: A New Paradigm. Zentrum Liberale Moderne, January 2023.
Solonenko, Iryna. “Gesellschaft und Politik in der Ukraine haben der Korruption den Kampf angesagt”. Zentrum Liberale Moderne, 1 February 2023.
(4)
Ganster, Ronja, Jacob Kirkegaard, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff and Bruce Stokes Designing Ukraine’s Recovery in the Spirit of the Marshall Plan. German Marshall Fund, September 2022.
Conley, Heather A. A Modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine. German Marshall Fund, October 2022.
Kleine-Brockhoff, Thomas and Ronja Ganster. “Postwar Planning Must Begin: What a Modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine Looks Like”. German Marshall Fund, 24 October 2022.
Prokscha, Antonio. “‘Transparency Is Key’: Recovering Ukraine’s Energy Sector”. German Marshall Fund, 25 October 2022.
Normandin, Henri-Paul. “Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction: Cities Must Be Part of It”. German Marshall Fund, 14 November 2022.
(5)
Eurobarometer Autumn 2022. European Parliament, January 2023.
Eurobarometer Winter 2022-2023. European Parliament, February 2023.
Dunn, Amina. “As Russian invasion nears one-year mark, partisans grow further apart on U.S. support for Ukraine”. Pew Research Center, 31 January 2023.
Ash, Timothy Garton, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard. United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine. European Council on Foreign Relations, February 2023.
The World’s Response to the War in Ukraine. A 28-country Global Advisor survey. Ipsos, January 2023.
(6) Savoy, Conor M. and Janina Staguhn. Enabling an Economic Transformation of Ukraine. Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 2023.
(7) “The total amount of damage caused to Ukraine’s infrastructure due to the war has increased to almost $138 billion”. Kyiv School of Economics, 24 January 2023.
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