Future Shocks for Europe:
What’s Next?
Risks and possible answers for the coming decade
Assessment of the probability,
impact and
timeframe of 15 risks
The coronavirus crisis, Russia's war against Ukraine and Hamas' terrorist attacks against Israel with the subsequent escalation in the Middle East and on the streets and squares of European cities – what other challenges is Europe likely to face in the coming years? Is it even possible to predict such events or are such assumptions merely based on guesswork? And how can emerging crises be averted in time? The European Parliament began monitoring potential future shocks during the coronavirus crisis.
Experience gleaned during the pandemic has shown that areas that are primarily national responsibilities can benefit from analyses and discussions at EU level. For example, although healthcare is an area of limited EU competence, the pandemic required a coordinated response at the European level, including new funding and the launch of new initiatives and instruments. Russia's invasion of Ukraine came as a surprise to many policy makers and observers in Europe, although there had been tangible indications of Moscow's revisionist stance in previous years – not least the annexation of Crimea in 2014. To avoid being taken by surprise again, the study identifies potential threats and challenges that could affect Europe in the years to come.
The 2023 "Future Shocks" edition – the second in this annual series – focuses on areas for which the EU is primarily responsible. A total of 15 risks in the sectors geopolitics, climate change, health, economy and democracy are highlighted that could become relevant over the next decade.
Various scenarios and options are described, from further attempts by Russia to destabilise Europe and China's ambitions, to "reunite" with Taiwan, to the collapse of the Internet and the loss of biodiversity on the planet. The risks identified have different probabilities. They have been analysed for the period from 2023 to 2036.
The study presents ten possible policy responses to the risks, which aim to strengthen existing governance structures. Some of the proposed measures can already be found in resolutions of the European Parliament, in statements by other EU institutions and in strategy papers by think tanks and interest groups.
You can find more information on this in the study “Future Shocks 2023: Anticipating and weathering the next storms”, published by the European Parliament in July 2023, and in the article “Future Shocks 2023: De-risking Europe’s global critical supply chains [Policy podcast]”, published by the EPRS Strategic Foresight and Capabilities Unit in August 2023.
A Comparison of Changing Governments in Europe
A Comparison of Changing Governments in Europe
How long do governments in Europe really stay in office?
Belgium, Finland and Italy are among the European countries with the shortest average government terms in office.
Even though European states hold national elections at regular intervals, this does not necessarily mean that governments remain in office for the entire period.
In 2022, the UK saw the rapid turnover of three prime ministers, including Liz Truss, who was only in charge for 49 days. This raises many questions: Is such rapid turnover healthy for democracy? How often does this happen, and how long do governments in Europe typically stay in office?
A study by the Pew Research Centers showed that, on average, governments in Europe change at least every two years. In Belgium, Finland and Italy in particular, governments often stay in office for less than a year. This contrasts with Luxembourg, where the average length of government is over four and a half years. In Germany, the average is just under three years.
What is the reason for this? There are various processes that can influence government terms ending prematurely, such as the formation of governments through coalitions – without the need for elections – or early elections when a government collapses before a scheduled election date. Countries such as Belgium, Estonia and Italy often experienced more than two changes of government within one electoral period.
However, it is crucial that a country continues to be governed – even in times when a new parliament is constituted or no stable government can be formed. This is where caretaker governments come into play. The Netherlands, for example, has been led by eleven such governments since the Second World War.
Further information on this topic is available in the article "Many countries in Europe get a new government at least every two years", published in January 2023.
Securing Europe’s Future
Ending Russia’s war against Ukraine and avoiding the dangers of a false peaceEnding Russia's war against Ukraine and avoiding the dangers of a false peace
As Ukraine struggles tirelessly to liberate its occupied territories from Russian invaders, potential ways to end the war and their consequences are being debated on the international level. Although the international response has been impressive in many respects, there are also clearly divergent positions – particularly with regards to ending the war.
The stakes are high for Ukraine. A prolonged or “frozen” war would benefit Russia and harm Ukraine. This also applies to a ceasefire or a negotiated solution on Russia's terms. In discussions about ending the war, the risk of a premature and inadequate peace must be taken into account. The threat that Russia poses to the rules-based international order is still being underestimated. Unilateral demands for a ceasefire or a “negotiated settlement” could reward the aggressor and penalise the victim.
A convincing victory for Ukraine therefore seems essential to guarantee Europe’s security in the long term. This emphasises the need for intensified Western military support for Kyiv.
A new report by Chatham House calls for a swift and decisive increase in this support. The paper highlights nine fallacies about support for Ukraine and the end of the war. It addresses, among other things, the idea that Russian security concerns must be considered or the assumption that this conflict is “not our war”.
The report explains the dangers of such views and presents alternative solutions that not only benefit Ukraine in the short term, but also strengthen Euro-Atlantic security in the long term.
Read more in the study: “How to end Russia’s war on Ukraine: Safeguarding Europe’s future, and the dangers of a false peace”, veröffentlicht im Juni 2023.
Strengthening NATO Frontline States
Role of the Baltic states for the transatlantic community
NATO defence spending as a share of real GDP, 2022
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has impressively demonstrated to the international community how essential it is to prevent aggression in advance rather than confronting it later. This war has permanently changed NATO's security environment. Russia has proven to be a key threat to European security. Despite considerable losses in the Ukraine conflict, Russia is intensifying its military endeavours, which puts the Baltic states in particular at increased risk.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has conducted an analysis of the security situation in the Baltic States, with a focus on Lithuania, within the context of the CSIS International Security Programme. The study examines potential threats from Russia, NATO's response, the requirements for effective deterrence and the goals achieved at the NATO summit in Madrid in 2022.
It is clear that the defence of the Baltic states is of paramount importance to the transatlantic community. Not only the national, but also the personal well-being of the population of these countries is at stake.
It is against this backdrop that the Baltic states have intensified their defence efforts. Lithuania's defence budget has tripled since 2008 and all Baltic states have reached NATO's two percent target. In terms of military personnel in relation to the total population, the Baltic states are far ahead of many other NATO member states. Nevertheless, they have some geostrategic weaknesses. Their geography leaves them little room for strategic manoeuvres. NATO reinforcements would be forced to travel long distances, and the Suwałki corridor between Kaliningrad and Belarus in particular represents an enormous source of danger.
Further details and findings can be found in the study: “Repel, Don’t Expel: Strengthening NATO’s Defense and Deterrence in the Baltic States”, published in July 2023.
Who are the EU's top gas suppliers, starting with the largest?
There Is No Way Back
How to achieve a sustainable energy supply for the EU
In view of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, the European Union has intensified its efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian gas and oil. The abrupt need for alternatives presented the EU with a significant challenge that necessitated a rapid reorganisation of its energy supply.
A study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) examines various alternatives to the EU's current gas supply and analyses potential energy export partners in detail. It was found that many countries were prepared to increase their exports to Europe in times of need. The USA and Norway deserve special mention here. These two countries not only have impressive gas reserves, but are also proactively involved in the development of renewable energies. This positions them as key players in the EU's future energy strategy.
The EU's climate targets envisage an intensification of renewable energies. The need for long-term partnerships with countries that can supply clean energy is thus evident. The focus is not only on the substitution of gas and oil, but also on a comprehensive, forward-looking energy policy.
The EU currently has the necessary resources and financial means to fully utilise the potential of alternative energy suppliers. Strategic partnerships with these countries not only ensure security of energy supply, but also accelerate the path to a more sustainable energy future.
Read more in the study “Keeping the lights on: The EU’s energy relationships since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”, published in May 2023.
Friendship in Europe: 60th Anniversary of the Élysée Treaty
Friendship
in Europe:
60th Anniversary of the Élysée Treaty
The priorities of French and German citizens
What ideas should France and Germany represent in Europe? Over 50,000 French and German citizens answered this question to mark the 60th anniversary of the Élysée Treaty. They showed a strong commitment to dialogue on Europe's future having come up with 1,783 suggestions and 942,000 votes cast, resulting in 16 joint priorities.
This includes strengthening a common environmental and climate protection strategy, deepening cooperation and cohesion between EU member states in the face of global superpowers, promoting educational synergies in Europe, developing a common energy strategy and further developing participatory democracy in Europe.
The analysis of the votes cast highlighted ideas that were widely supported in both countries – such as the call for more educational synergies in Europe – as well as those that were discussed more controversially, such as the proposal for a federal Europe. There were also differences in approval depending on the country, for example with regard to the idea of limiting the powers of the European Commission.
The complete results as well as further details can be found in the final report of the online consultation “Élysée-Vertrag: Gemeinsam in die Zukunft blicken”, which was published in June 2023.
The complete results as well as further details can be found in the final report of the online consultation “Élysée-Vertrag: Gemeinsam in die Zukunft blicken”, which was published in June 2023.
Electric Vehicles and Transatlantic Tensions
Electric
Vehicles and Transatlantic Tensions
Cooperation or conflict in the field of clean energy?
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 has led to trade disputes between the US and the EU. The analysis of the electric vehicle supply chain highlights the complex political-economic challenges in the efforts of the US and the EU to work together on a clean energy transition. The focus is primarily on reducing CO₂ emissions. This conflict reveals different priorities between Washington and Brussels, particularly in terms of economic efficiency, WTO regulations and national security concerns.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics paper highlights how the IRA, its implementation regulations, policy decisions on leasing and potential essential minerals agreements affect the electric vehicle supply chain. The study on electric vehicles reveals the challenges facing US and EU efforts to co-operate on clean energy policies and reduce global CO₂ emissions.
Read more in the study “Industrial policy for electric vehicle supply chains and the US-EU dispute over the Inflation Reduction Act”, published in May 2023.
Europe’s Borders Under Pressure
Oscillating between rescue and instrumentalisation
European borders are currently increasingly affected by irregular migration. North Africans and people from sub-Saharan Africa are seeking a route to Europe, particularly via the central Mediterranean route, which leads from North Africa to Italy. There are many reasons for this. From June 2022 to May 2023, almost 136,000 migrants reached Italy; a similar number to the years 2014 to 2017.
The Atlantic Council has conducted a detailed analysis of the central Mediterranean route – which mainly connects Libya and Tunisia with Italy – to assess the current situation and draw conclusions. One of the findings: Financial assistance to third countries to stem migration is not necessarily the most effective solution and brings with it both long-term challenges and ethical issues. Recipient countries could leverage their influence to use migration movements as a means of exerting further pressure on European states.
The strategy of using migration as a means of imposing costs on other states harbours fundamental problems and could become increasingly important in the coming years. The report by the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats analyses how Belarus instrumentalises migration. Since 2021, this alternative route, which leads via Moscow and Minsk to the Belarusian-Polish border, has become increasingly important. Many EU member states perceive the increase in migration on this route as a deliberate provocation by Belarus and Russia. It is suspected that migration is being instrumentalised and used as political leverage against the EU.
Further information on this topic can be found in the study “Instrumentalized migration and the Belarus crisis: Strategies of legal coercion” from April 2023 and in the essay “Irregular migration from North Africa: Shifting local and regional dynamics” from August 2023.
The question of whether multilateral and bilateral agreements with third countries can be considered an effective migration policy instrument is also addressed in the first issue of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s “Migrationspolitische Debatten”.
The Cost of an Ageing Society and Debt
An analysis of European fiscal policy under new legislation
The new EU fiscal framework proposed by the European Commission in April 2023 has led to lively discussions among member states. The aim of the realignment is to make medium-term fiscal adjustments by means of a country-specific debt sustainability analysis (DSA), the conventional deficit ceiling of three per cent and new simplified adjustment rules known as safeguards.
Bruegel’s new policy paper reproduces the DSA methodology and calculates the necessary fiscal adjustments for EU countries whose debt and deficits exceed the set limits. A graph showing the potential costs of an ageing society for different EU member states is particularly noteworthy.
The Commission's DSA methodology is considered to be largely appropriate and in line with the methods used by other international organisations. Nevertheless, it contains simplifications and assumptions that require critical consideration. From this, the authors of the paper derive nine policy recommendations on how the European Commission's proposal could be improved.
Further information can be found in the working paper “A quantitative evaluation of the European Commission’s fiscal governance proposal”, which was published in September 2023.
“Wadde hadde dudde da?” – What have you there?
How Germany performed at the ESC
It is impossible to imagine Europe without the Eurovision Song Contest (ESC). Since its inception in 1956, it has not only been the world's biggest pop music event, but also one of Europe's most popular television programmes. The ESC serves as a platform for cultural diplomacy, setting important signals and pursuing geopolitics.
Germany has been a consistent participant in the ESC since its inception in 1956 and has taken part almost every year. Germany has won the Eurovision Song Contest twice: in 1982 with Nicole and her song "Ein bisschen Frieden" and in 2010 when Lena triumphed with "Satellite". We have illustrated Germany's rankings in the ESC from 2000 to 2023 for ESC fans.
Further graphics and details on the ESC can be found in the overview articles “Deutschland: Alle Ergebnisse beim ESC” and “Erfolgreichste ESC-Siegertitel in deutschen Charts”.
Contributors to this issue were:
Team KALUZA + SCHMID Studio, Bogdan Miftakhov, Kristin Wesemann, Leon Buchberger, Anna Natenadze
Sources
(1) European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS). Future Shocks 2023: Anticipating and weathering the next storms. July 2023
(2) Glancy, Laura/Sarah Austin/Jordan Lippert. Many countries in Europe get a new gvernment at least every two years. Pew Research Center, 25 January 2023
(3) Ash, Timothy et al. How to end Russia’s war on Ukraine: Safeguarding Europe’s future, and the dangers of a false peace. Chatham House, June 2023
(4) Cancian, Mark F. & Sean Monaghan. “Repel, Don’t Expel”: Strengthening NATOS’s Defense and Deterrence in the Baltic States. CSIS, July 2023
(5) Kardas, Szymon. Keeping the lights on: The EU’s energy relationships since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), 4 May 2023
(6) Civico Europa, Europäische Akademie Berlin, Make.org. Élysée-Vertrag: Zusammen den Blick in die Zukunft richten. 22 January to 23 April 2023
(7) Bown, Chad P. Industrial policy for electric vehicle supply chains and the US-EU flight over the Inflation Reduction Act. Person Institute for International Economics (PIIE), May 2023
(8)
Villa, Matteo & Alissa Pavia. Irregular migration from North Africa: Shifting local and regional dynamics. Atlantic Council, 3 August 2023
Sari, Aurel. Instrumentalized migration and the Belarus crisis: Strategies of legal coercion. European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, April 2023
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. Migrationspolitische Debatten: Ein Thema, drei Perspektiven. Issue 1
(9) Darvas, Zsolt/Lennard Welslau/Jeromin Zettelmeyer. A quantitative eveluation oft he European Commission’s fiscal governance proposal. Bruegel, 18 September 2023
(10)
ARD. Deutschland: Alle Ergebnisse beim ESC. No Date
Sprengelmeyer, Louise. Erfolgreichste ESC-Siegertitel in deutschen Charts. ARD, 13 March 2019